Onlykashmir Desk
On the surface, the Budgam by-election appears to be a family contest – one that revolves around the internal political influence of the Agha family. But beneath the surface, the electoral dynamics are taking a far more complex and unexpected turn, one that could prove both a surprise and a lesson for the big political players.
The ground reality is that nearly 65 percent of the voting population of Budgam is Sunni. This is an important aspect that all the major parties have probably overlooked. The National Conference, PDP and BJP have narrowed their constituency by fielding only Shia candidates, which may result in the majority community feeling underrepresented.
Meanwhile, the unexpected departure of Mohiddin Muntazir from his party has further cast a shadow over the political landscape. His departure has not only affected the party’s electoral balance but also created a rift in its vote bank. On the other hand, a clear rift has also emerged between National Conference MP Agha Ruhullah Mehdi and the party. If Agha Ruhullah’s disgruntled supporters from his community abstain from voting, it could prove detrimental to the National Conference.
In such a situation, the possibility has increased that an independent candidate from the Sunni community will take advantage and consolidate the majority of votes in his favor. This development could not only change the outcome of this by-election but also serve as a warning to the major political parties that family identity politics is now weakening in the face of the broader socio-economic trends of the electorate.
This Budgam election is not just a clash of personalities, but also a test of political acumen. If the major parties continue to fail to understand the ground realities and demographic balance, the upcoming results will not only be a surprise for them but also a political lesson.
