Monday, May 25, 2026 –
Climate scientists and agricultural experts have sounded an alert over the potential impact of El Niño on Kashmir’s weather patterns, warning that the phenomenon could significantly add to the Valley’s already volatile weather variability. The caution comes against a backdrop of a week already marked by mixed conditions — intermittent showers, thunderstorm threats, and uncertain orchard-spraying windows across the Valley.
Experts note that El Niño’s influence on South Asian monsoon dynamics tends to suppress seasonal rainfall and disrupt the established wet-dry cycles that Kashmir’s horticulture sector depends on. Apple orchards — the backbone of the Valley’s economy — are particularly vulnerable to unseasonal frost, insufficient snowpack, and shifting precipitation patterns. The current season has already seen warnings about risky periods for orchard spraying due to fluctuating weather.
The concern is not merely meteorological. Kashmir’s apple industry, which supplies a substantial portion of India’s total apple output, is directly tied to the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of farming families. Any sustained disruption caused by El Niño — whether drought-like deficits or erratic hailstorms — could have cascading economic consequences.
Agricultural authorities have urged growers to keep contingency plans in place and to monitor advisories closely through the coming weeks as Arafat Day and Eid approach, a period when many orchard activities typically wind down before the summer maintenance push.
